Bundesliga · Matchday 3
Matchday 3 completed
Bundesliga MD3: Results and Original Predictions
Bundesliga Matchday 3: 9 of 9 final scores verified on 14 September 2026. 4 predictions called the correct result, including 1 exact score; 5 missed. The round is complete.
By Jim · Updated
Bundesliga Matchday 3: 9 of 9 final scores verified on 14 September 2026. 4 predictions called the correct result, including 1 exact score; 5 missed. The round is complete.
Results are from the API-Football records used by ScoreSocial. The scores and model labels published on 11 September are unchanged. Exact scores are included in the correct-result count. The original preview below is a dated pre-match record. See the full prediction accuracy archive.
Verified results
| Fixture | Published prediction | Final score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin v Schalke | 2–1 | 1–3 | Miss |
| Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn | 1–0 | 3–0 | Correct result |
| Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart | 1–2 | 2–1 | Miss |
| Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2–0 | 5–0 | Correct result |
| Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen | 2–1 | 2–2 | Miss |
| Mainz v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–1 | 1–3 | Miss |
| Cologne v Werder Bremen | 2–1 | 1–1 | Miss |
| RB Leipzig v Hamburg | 2–0 | 5–0 | Correct result |
| Elversberg v Bayern Munich | 1–2 | 1–2 | Exact score |
Original preview — published before kickoff
Bundesliga Matchday 3 runs from Friday 11 to Sunday 13 September 2026. Union Berlin v Schalke opens the round, Borussia Dortmund host Paderborn on Saturday and promoted Elversberg welcome champions Bayern Munich in Sunday's final match. All nine editorial-score-v3.2 predictions are below, using refreshed form and positions checked against the dated results.
The official Bundesliga Matchday 3 page confirms all nine pairings and kickoff order. The DFL also confirmed selected times in its opening-round schedule announcement. Readers should still check the active ScoreSocial card before submitting.
Matchday 3 at a glance
- Friday opener: Union Berlin v Schalke.
- Saturday focus: Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn and Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen.
- Sunday finish: RB Leipzig v Hamburg, then Elversberg v Bayern Munich.
- Early leaders: Augsburg, Freiburg, Dortmund and Elversberg have six points.
- Prediction status: all nine model scores are recorded, with probabilities and confidence.
See all nine scores and their evidence, enter the Bundesliga prediction league, or review the completed Matchday 2 evidence.
What matters this matchday?
Bundesliga Matchday 3 runs from Friday 11 to Sunday 13 September, beginning with Union Berlin–Schalke. The official Matchday 3 page confirms nine fixtures, while the official table shows Augsburg, Freiburg, Dortmund and Elversberg on six points. Augsburg–Leverkusen has the broadest early attacking evidence after both clubs scored four in their previous games. Dortmund–Paderborn and Freiburg–Gladbach carry the clearest home-table contrasts. Elversberg's perfect promoted start makes Bayern's Sunday visit more interesting than a routine favourite call, particularly after Bayern drew 0–0 at Schalke. Mainz arrive from a 5–0 win, but one exceptional score must be shrunk towards a realistic baseline. The nine editorial-score-v3.2 scores now use refreshed, match-specific inputs. Bayern now lead the Elversberg selection, while Dortmund's chosen margin narrows to 1–0. Thin samples still limit every confidence label. Result-direction probability and exact-score probability measure different things. The operational card is still a draft at this review; entry availability and the displayed deadline must be checked in the app.
Official table before Matchday 3
| Pos | Club | P | Record | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Augsburg | 2 | 2-0-0 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 2 | 2-0-0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2-0-0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Elversberg | 2 | 2-0-0 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Mainz | 2 | 1-1-0 | +5 | 4 |
| 6 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 1-1-0 | +4 | 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 1-0-1 | +3 | 3 |
| 8 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1-0-1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1-0-1 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 1-0-1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cologne | 2 | 1-0-1 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 2 | 0-1-1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 0-1-1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Schalke | 2 | 0-1-1 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Union Berlin | 2 | 0-1-1 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Hoffenheim | 2 | 0-0-2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0-0-2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Hamburg | 2 | 0-0-2 | -7 | 0 |
The official Bundesliga table supplied this snapshot on 10 September. Two games are far too few to treat rank as settled strength, but the goals and result directions are relevant current evidence.
Previous round results and form
The form sample is the first two league rounds, with the latest result weighted first. These are the completed Matchday 2 results, played on 4–6 September:
| Fixture | Result |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart v Cologne | 4–1 |
| Paderborn v Freiburg | 0–1 |
| Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig | 3–1 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach v Elversberg | 3–4 |
| Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin | 4–0 |
| Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund | 2–3 |
| Schalke v Bayern Munich | 0–0 |
| Hamburg v Mainz | 0–5 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg | 1–4 |
Bremen beating Leipzig and Elversberg winning a seven-goal match are useful warnings against simply following reputation. Bayern's draw also matters, but neither that result nor Mainz's five-goal win should stand in for a long-term strength estimate.
Confirmed Matchday 3 fixtures
Friday 11 September: Union Berlin v Schalke.
Saturday 12 September: Mainz v Eintracht Frankfurt; Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen; Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach; Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart; Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn; Cologne v Werder Bremen.
Sunday 13 September: RB Leipzig v Hamburg; Elversberg v Bayern Munich.
These pairings match the DFL's live Matchday 3 listing. The operational card currently displays an entry deadline of 18:15 BST on Friday, 15 minutes before kickoff, but remains a draft. Check the app for publication before entering.
ScoreSocial fixture predictions
Predictions were rerun through the authenticated editorial-score-v3.2 viewer on 11 September 2026, before kickoff. It combines venue scoring and conceding rates, recent results, available same-competition previous-season evidence and API-Football/Scorebot signals. It selects the leading home/draw/away outcome, then a score within that outcome. Low confidence can reflect a thin sample or conflicting inputs, even when the leading percentage is high. These are Jim's published model-assisted selections, not guaranteed results or a demonstrated accuracy improvement. Availability reporting retains its stated review date; confirmed lineups and individual absences are not directly priced into these scores.
| Fixture | Predicted score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin v Schalke | 2-1 | Union's home edge is narrow; Schalke's goalless start does not make a clean sheet certain. H/D/A 48/31/21%; model goals 1.96–1.35; confidence low; exact-score probability 9.02%. |
| Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn | 1-0 | Dortmund's two wins and Paderborn's lack of goals support a home win without requiring a rout. H/D/A 54/32/14%; model goals 1.68–0.8; confidence low; exact-score probability 11.67%. |
| Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | Stuttgart's recovery earns the away lean, but both defences have allowed chances; this is a close call. H/D/A 35/28/37%; model goals 2.4–2.32; confidence low; exact-score probability 5.85%. |
| Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2-0 | Freiburg's strong start and Gladbach's defensive problems support the home result. The revised score is 2-0, but a thin sample limits trust in that exact margin. H/D/A 63/29/8%; model goals 2.36–0.95; confidence low; exact-score probability 8.89%. |
| Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen | 2-1 | Augsburg's strong start nudges the model home; Leverkusen's response keeps a goal for the visitors plausible. H/D/A 45/31/24%; model goals 2.01–1.54; confidence low; exact-score probability 8.49%. |
| Mainz v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-1 | Mainz get the home call, without treating their 5-0 at Hamburg as a repeatable margin. H/D/A 40/32/28%; model goals 1.73–1.52; confidence low; exact-score probability 8.78%. |
| Cologne v Werder Bremen | 2-1 | Cologne's venue scoring baseline now gives them a clearer home lean. Bremen's win over Leipzig remains a warning against treating it as a safe selection. H/D/A 48/26/26%; model goals 2.18–1.55; confidence low; exact-score probability 7.6%. |
| RB Leipzig v Hamburg | 2-0 | Leipzig lead the model, but their loss at Bremen is a reason not to turn Hamburg's poor start into a huge margin. H/D/A 66/29/5%; model goals 2.32–0.74; confidence low; exact-score probability 10.81%. |
| Elversberg v Bayern Munich | 1-2 | Bayern's longer-run scoring baseline outweighs Elversberg's perfect two-game start in v3.2. This reverses the previous upset call, but the promoted hosts' form keeps confidence low. H/D/A 25/26/49%; model goals 1.36–2.06; confidence low; exact-score probability 7.7%. |
Match-by-match guide
Union Berlin v Schalke
Both begin on one point and have negative goal differences. Union have scored three but conceded seven; Schalke have not scored in two league games. The home venue gives Union a small early edge, while Schalke's scoring baseline raises clean-sheet questions for the final model.
Mainz v Eintracht Frankfurt
Mainz are unbeaten and have a +5 goal difference after winning 5–0 at Hamburg. Frankfurt have one point and conceded four at home to Augsburg. The current contrast is strong, though one emphatic result should not automatically become another large margin.
Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen
Augsburg lead after two wins and seven goals. Leverkusen responded to an opening defeat with a 4–0 win. This is arguably Saturday's best form match: both have produced high totals, so the final process must separate genuine attacking evidence from two-game volatility.
Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Freiburg have two wins and only one goal conceded. Gladbach have lost twice and conceded seven. That supplies a clear home direction, but the exact score still depends on availability and whether Freiburg can sustain their early chance conversion.
Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim have lost twice despite scoring four. Stuttgart recovered from a heavy opening defeat by scoring four against Cologne. Both teams' games have been open, making total-goal and both-team scoring evidence especially important.
Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn
Dortmund have six points and five goals. Paderborn have one point and are yet to score. The home direction is the strongest on Saturday, but a score should be recorded only after checking confirmed rotation and the expected-goal envelope.
Cologne v Werder Bremen
Both have three points, four goals scored and negative goal differences. Cologne's home venue is the main separator. Bremen's 3–1 win over Leipzig shows why the previous defeat cannot define them, while Cologne need to respond after conceding four in Stuttgart.
RB Leipzig v Hamburg
Leipzig have one win; Hamburg have lost twice without scoring and conceded seven. The table supports Leipzig, yet their 3–1 loss at Bremen prevents an automatic large home call. Hamburg's availability and response after the Mainz defeat need final review.
Elversberg v Bayern Munich
Elversberg's promoted start is perfect after wins over Leverkusen and Gladbach. Bayern have four points after a 0–0 draw at Schalke. Reputation still favours the champions, but current evidence makes this a real test and argues against dismissing the hosts.
How to read these predictions
Four selections are 2–1, two are 2–0, two are 1–2 and Dortmund's is 1–0. Each comes from its own scoring distribution, not a target mix of scores. Bayern's 49% away chance still leaves 51% for a draw or Elversberg win. Even Leipzig's 66% home chance comes with a low-confidence label because the current venue sample is thin. No score was manually overridden. The prediction-results archive records the same nine calls, ready to measure against verified results.
Injuries and availability
The Bundesliga's 10 September availability update lists Union's Ilić as out following an appendectomy, Schalke's Schallenberg as suspended, and Dortmund's Can as out with a knee problem. Its probable lineups are not confirmed starting teams. The same source provides availability lists for the remaining fixtures; those were reviewed, but this model does not directly price each named absence.
Bayern's 10 September availability check listed Gnabry as a fitness question: the club's individual-training report describes his comeback without confirming an appearance. The Thursday Bodø/Glimt result and subsequent injury updates were not incorporated into this model rerun. These limitations are particularly important for the low-confidence Elversberg–Bayern pick.
What matters for predictors
- Augsburg–Leverkusen has the round's broadest early attacking evidence.
- Dortmund–Paderborn and Freiburg–Gladbach have the clearest table contrasts.
- Elversberg's six points make Bayern's final match less routine than reputation suggests.
- Mainz's 5–0 is relevant, but the model should shrink one exceptional score toward a realistic baseline.
Sources reviewed
- Official Bundesliga Matchday 3 fixtures
- Official Bundesliga 2026/27 table
- DFL opening matchday scheduling announcement
Fact-check date: 10 September 2026. API-Football form and positions refreshed at 18:15 UTC; form chronology checked against the first two rounds, then all nine predictions rerun. No completed prediction or result was changed.
Prediction revision: 11 September 2026. Scores and probabilities above replace the pre-kickoff v3.1 selections; the earlier capture remains archived. No started fixture or recorded result was changed.