Bundesliga · Matchday 4
Matchday 4 completed
Bundesliga MD4 Results and Prediction Review
All 9 Bundesliga Matchday 4 finals verified. 3 published predictions got the result right.
By Jim · Updated
Bundesliga Matchday 4: all 9 final scores were verified on 21 September 2026. 3 published predictions got the result right; none matched the exact score.
The production fixture record links every final below to a verified API-Football fixture ID. The predictions and methodology labels published before kickoff remain unchanged, so this review can be audited against the prediction-results archive.
Verified results
| Fixture | Published prediction | Final score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich v Union Berlin | 3–1 | 7–0 | Correct result |
| Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg | 2–1 | 2–2 | Miss |
| Hamburg v Cologne | 1–1 | 2–1 | Miss |
| Werder Bremen v Augsburg | 1–1 | 3–2 | Miss |
| Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz | 1–1 | 3–4 | Miss |
| VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund | 1–2 | 0–1 | Correct result |
| Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig | 2–1 | 2–0 | Correct result |
| Schalke v Elversberg | 2–1 | 0–0 | Miss |
| Paderborn v Hoffenheim | 1–2 | 3–1 | Miss |
Original preview — published before kickoff
Bundesliga Matchday 4 runs from Friday 18 to Sunday 20 September 2026. Bayern Munich v Union Berlin opens the round, Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund is Saturday's late fixture, and Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig leads Sunday's programme. This final guide pairs the verified card with nine transparent human editorial score picks.
The official Bundesliga Matchday 4 page lists all nine games and their sequence. The DFB Datencenter round page independently identifies the 18–20 September window. ScoreSocial's displayed deadline remains the practical authority for entries.
Matchday 4 at a glance
- Friday opener: Bayern Munich v Union Berlin.
- Saturday headline: Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund.
- Sunday focus: Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig.
- Promoted sides: Schalke host Elversberg; Paderborn host Hoffenheim.
- Prediction status: nine editorial-manual-v1 scores are reviewed, published and frozen below.
Open the Bundesliga prediction league, revisit the completed Matchday 3 review, or read the prediction methodology and results.
What matters this matchday?
Bundesliga Matchday 4 starts with Bayern–Union on Friday 18 September and finishes with Paderborn–Hoffenheim on Sunday. The official league page confirms nine fixtures, including Stuttgart–Dortmund and Leverkusen–Leipzig. The DFB round page confirms the date window. Friday's opener can close the entire ScoreSocial card before Saturday team news is available, so players should not use the late Sunday finish as a deadline. The early table remains a small sample after three rounds, and European recovery can affect several clubs. This page records the verified card and publishes the reviewed human editorial scores because the model returned no publishable replacement. ScoreSocial only adds an exact prediction after the operational fixture is linked to a verified API-Football ID, the required current-season evidence is present and Jim has reviewed the recommendation. The model evidence check remained incomplete, so the visible scores are explicitly labelled editorial-manual-v1 and still enter the public accuracy record.
Confirmed fixture card
Friday 18 September: Bayern Munich v Union Berlin.
Saturday 19 September: Werder Bremen v Augsburg; Hamburg v Cologne; Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz; Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg; Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund.
Sunday 20 September: Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig; Schalke v Elversberg; Paderborn v Hoffenheim.
The official fixture products page and matchday page should be checked again if broadcast scheduling changes.
Fixture-by-fixture outlook
Bayern Munich v Union Berlin
The 3-1 prediction backs Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich's win probability is 58%, compared with 24% for a draw and 18% for Union Berlin. That is the clearest result lean in this fixture, although the exact score remains less certain.
Werder Bremen v Augsburg
The 1-1 prediction reflects a close contest. The draw is rated at 34%, compared with 36% for Werder Bremen and 30% for Augsburg. With no outcome holding a decisive advantage, this remains a cautious score call.
Hamburg v Cologne
The 1-1 prediction reflects a close contest. The draw is rated at 34%, compared with 35% for Hamburg and 31% for Cologne. With no outcome holding a decisive advantage, this remains a cautious score call.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz
The 1-1 prediction reflects a close contest. The draw is rated at 34%, compared with 37% for Borussia Monchengladbach and 29% for Mainz. With no outcome holding a decisive advantage, this remains a cautious score call.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg
The 2-1 prediction backs Eintracht Frankfurt. Eintracht Frankfurt's win probability is 45%, compared with 29% for a draw and 26% for Freiburg. That gives the selection an edge, while the exact score remains a cautious estimate.
Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
The 1-2 prediction backs Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund's win probability is 43%, compared with 29% for a draw and 28% for VfB Stuttgart. That gives the selection an edge, while the exact score remains a cautious estimate.
Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig
The 2-1 prediction backs Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen's win probability is 48%, compared with 27% for a draw and 25% for RB Leipzig. That gives the selection an edge, while the exact score remains a cautious estimate.
Schalke v Elversberg
The 2-1 prediction backs Schalke. Schalke's win probability is 46%, compared with 29% for a draw and 25% for Elversberg. That gives the selection an edge, while the exact score remains a cautious estimate.
Paderborn v Hoffenheim
The 1-2 prediction backs Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim's win probability is 44%, compared with 29% for a draw and 27% for Paderborn. That gives the selection an edge, while the exact score remains a cautious estimate.
ScoreSocial fixture predictions
The verified provider card was available, but the current scoring workflow returned no publishable model replacement. Jim therefore reviewed and froze these transparent human editorial picks on 16 September 2026. They are tracked as editorial-manual-v1 and remain low-confidence opinions.
| Fixture | Predicted score | Evidence and confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich v Union Berlin | 3-1 | Editorial: H 58% / D 24% / A 18% · medium confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
| Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg | 2-1 | Editorial: H 45% / D 29% / A 26% · low confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
| Hamburg v Cologne | 1-1 | Editorial: H 35% / D 34% / A 31% · low confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
| Werder Bremen v Augsburg | 1-1 | Editorial: H 36% / D 34% / A 30% · low confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
| Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz | 1-1 | Editorial: H 37% / D 34% / A 29% · low confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
| VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund | 1-2 | Editorial: H 28% / D 29% / A 43% · low confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
| Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig | 2-1 | Editorial: H 48% / D 27% / A 25% · low confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
| Schalke v Elversberg | 2-1 | Editorial: H 46% / D 29% / A 25% · low confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
| Paderborn v Hoffenheim | 1-2 | Editorial: H 27% / D 29% / A 44% · low confidence. Human editorial pick from the verified card and available form context; the scoring model returned no publishable replacement. |
Every score is now part of the public prediction record and must not be changed after the first kickoff.
Injuries and availability
No unverified absence has been converted into a numerical input. Readers should check official club updates and the in-app card before the deadline; late team news can change the practical risk without changing this frozen public record.
What the evidence suggests for predictors
The result percentages are more informative than the exact score alone. A low-confidence 2-1 is a narrow choice inside a broad range of plausible outcomes. Use the published probabilities to see where a fixture has a clearer direction and where the draw remains close.
Sources reviewed
- Official Bundesliga Matchday 4 page
- DFB Datencenter: Bundesliga Matchday 4
- Bundesliga fixture products page
Fact-check date: 16 September 2026. The nine fixtures and round dates are verified; the editorial scores are frozen; confirmed lineups and the operational deadline remain subject to live checks.