Ligue 1 · Matchday 4
Matchday 4 completed
Ligue 1 MD4: Results and Original Predictions
Ligue 1 Matchday 4: 9 of 9 final scores verified on 14 September 2026. 4 predictions called the correct result, including 1 exact score; 5 missed. The round is complete.
By Jim · Updated
Ligue 1 Matchday 4: 9 of 9 final scores verified on 14 September 2026. 4 predictions called the correct result, including 1 exact score; 5 missed. The round is complete.
Results are from the API-Football records used by ScoreSocial. The scores and model labels published on 11 September are unchanged. Exact scores are included in the correct-result count. The original preview below is a dated pre-match record. See the full prediction accuracy archive.
Verified results
| Fixture | Published prediction | Final score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes v Marseille | 2–1 | 1–0 | Correct result |
| Strasbourg v Monaco | 1–2 | 1–1 | Miss |
| Auxerre v Nice | 1–0 | 1–0 | Exact score |
| Le Havre v Angers | 0–1 | 0–0 | Miss |
| Lorient v Toulouse | 1–2 | 2–2 | Miss |
| Paris FC v Lyon | 1–2 | 0–0 | Miss |
| Lille v Troyes | 2–1 | 2–0 | Correct result |
| Le Mans v Lens | 2–1 | 2–2 | Miss |
| Brest v Paris Saint-Germain | 1–2 | 0–1 | Correct result |
Original preview — published before kickoff
Ligue 1 Matchday 4 runs from Friday 11 to Sunday 13 September 2026. Rennes v Marseille opens the nine-match card, which ends with Brest v Paris Saint-Germain. Jim's score predictions are now included below, using the authenticated editorial-score-v3.2 output captured on 11 September. They are opinions, not confirmed results.
The official Ligue 1 calendar remains the authority for fixtures and late changes. ScoreSocial's Matchday 4 card was checked on 10 September: it contains nine active fixtures and closes at the first Friday kickoff.
Matchday 4 at a glance
- Friday opener: Rennes v Marseille.
- Leaders tested: Monaco visit sixth-placed Strasbourg.
- Top-three contest: Paris FC host Lyon on Saturday evening.
- Unusual early position: Paris Saint-Germain begin 13th and travel to seventh-placed Brest.
- Prediction status: all 9 v3.2 scores are recorded below, with low-confidence calls identified.
View every score prediction and explanation, join the Ligue 1 prediction league, or read the completed Matchday 3 article.
What matters this matchday?
Ligue 1 Matchday 4 begins with Rennes–Marseille on Friday 11 September and ends with Brest–Paris Saint-Germain on Sunday. The official Ligue 1 calendar confirms the round, while the competition hub remains the authority for table and late changes. Monaco have nine points before visiting sixth-placed Strasbourg. Paris FC and Lyon are level on seven points and +4 before meeting, making their match a closely balanced top-of-the-table contest. Rennes' unbeaten start gives the hosts a current edge over Marseille; Auxerre's three defeats favour Nice on form alone, but the provider disagrees; this is a low-confidence match. Brest are unbeaten while PSG start 13th, so current form and longer-term strength point in different directions. Friday's opener closes every ScoreSocial entry. The authenticated model now supplies nine scores. Several are highly uncertain: PSG now lead at Brest, but the signals conflict, while the Auxerre pick conflicts with the table-only Nice lean.
Table snapshot before Matchday 4
| Pos | Club | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Paris FC | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Lyon | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Lille | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 5 | Rennes | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Brest | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Lorient | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Troyes | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Marseille | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lens | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Angers | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Nice | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Toulouse | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 3 | -7 | 0 |
This ScoreSocial snapshot was calculated from all settled Matchday 3 results and checked on 10 September. Three matches remain a thin sample, especially for established clubs whose early position differs sharply from longer-term expectation.
Confirmed Matchday 4 fixtures
Friday 11 September: Rennes v Marseille.
Saturday 12 September: Strasbourg v Monaco; Auxerre v Nice; Le Havre v Angers; Lorient v Toulouse; Paris FC v Lyon.
Sunday 13 September: Lille v Troyes; Le Mans v Lens; Brest v Paris Saint-Germain.
The ScoreSocial card was linked through API-Football and checked against the official competition calendar. Any postponement should be reflected in the app as void, not left as a required entry.
ScoreSocial fixture predictions
Predictions were rerun through the authenticated editorial-score-v3.2 viewer on 11 September 2026, before kickoff. It combines venue scoring and conceding rates, recent results, available same-competition previous-season evidence and API-Football/Scorebot signals. It selects the leading home/draw/away outcome, then a score within that outcome. Low confidence can reflect a thin sample or conflicting inputs, even when the leading percentage is high. These are Jim's published model-assisted selections, not guaranteed results or a demonstrated accuracy improvement. Availability reporting retains its stated review date; confirmed lineups and individual absences are not directly priced into these scores.
| Fixture | Predicted score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes v Marseille | 2-1 | Unbeaten Rennes have the stronger opening record. Marseille's quality keeps the visitors involved, so the model favours a narrow home win with both scoring. H/D/A 47/28/25%; model goals 1.84–1.28; confidence low; exact-score probability 8.57%. |
| Strasbourg v Monaco | 1-2 | Monaco's perfect start gives them the edge, but Strasbourg's back-to-back wins make this no routine trip. The draw remains a substantial alternative. H/D/A 29/33/38%; model goals 1.41–1.53; confidence low; exact-score probability 9.03%. |
| Auxerre v Nice | 1-0 | Nice have the better table record, while the venue-based estimates favour Auxerre. The revised home selection is 1-0; that conflict with early form keeps confidence low. H/D/A 46/34/20%; model goals 1.56–1.04; confidence low; exact-score probability 9.85%. |
| Le Havre v Angers | 0-1 | Angers' small table advantage translates into a narrow away selection. The low goal estimates and Le Havre's home venue leave considerable draw risk. H/D/A 25/36/39%; model goals 1.01–1.24; confidence low; exact-score probability 11.72%. |
| Lorient v Toulouse | 1-2 | Lorient have the better start, but Toulouse now lead the venue-adjusted model. The conflicting signals keep the away selection low confidence. H/D/A 27/32/41%; model goals 1.44–1.7; confidence low; exact-score probability 9.05%. |
| Paris FC v Lyon | 1-2 | Seven points and the same goal difference leave little to choose between them. Lyon now edge the scoring model by just one percentage point over Paris FC. H/D/A 35/29/36%; model goals 1.4–1.42; confidence low; exact-score probability 8.19%. |
| Lille v Troyes | 2-1 | Unbeaten Lille have the firmer baseline against inconsistent Troyes. The away scoring estimate prevents the model from treating a clean sheet as automatic. H/D/A 43/34/23%; model goals 1.56–1.17; confidence low; exact-score probability 9.18%. |
| Le Mans v Lens | 2-1 | The form comparison is close, but the provider favours Le Mans at home. Lens' two recent defeats support caution about backing reputation alone. H/D/A 39/32/29%; model goals 1.66–1.49; confidence low; exact-score probability 8.88%. |
| Brest v Paris Saint-Germain | 1-2 | Brest have started better, but PSG's longer-run scoring baseline changes the selection to an away win. That tension with current form prevents a confident call. H/D/A 23/31/46%; model goals 1.49–2.01; confidence low; exact-score probability 8.64%. |
Make your own selections in the Ligue 1 prediction league. The same score card is recorded in the prediction-results archive; settled predictions will not be rewritten.
Match-by-match guide
Rennes v Marseille
Rennes are fifth with seven points and unbeaten in three. Marseille sit 10th after two defeats. The home side have the stronger current direction, but Marseille's squad baseline keeps the gap smaller than the table alone suggests.
Strasbourg v Monaco
Monaco lead with three wins and a +4 goal difference. Strasbourg have recovered from an opening defeat with two wins. The visitors are favoured by the current signal, yet Strasbourg's home form makes this a genuine test rather than a routine leader's win.
Auxerre v Nice
Auxerre are bottom after three defeats and a -7 goal difference. Nice are 15th with two draws and a defeat. Nice have the safer table record, but the venue-adjusted model favours Auxerre 1–0. That is an explicitly uncertain departure from the form-only reading.
Le Havre v Angers
Le Havre have one point; Angers have three after one win and two losses. The provider probabilities are tightly grouped, which makes this a high-draw-risk match. A single table position should not force an away score.
Lorient v Toulouse
Lorient are eighth and have four points, while Toulouse are 17th with one. The form-only reading favours Lorient, but the venue-adjusted model now selects Toulouse 1–2. The disagreement is a limitation, not a reason to discard the visitors' poor start.
Paris FC v Lyon
Second hosts third, with both on seven points and +4 goal differences. Lyon now edge the combined scoring view by only one percentage point over Paris FC. This is the round's most balanced high-table contest and should retain substantial draw probability.
Lille v Troyes
Lille are fourth and unbeaten; Troyes are ninth after one win, one draw and one defeat. The home signal is strong, while Troyes have enough current evidence to make a clean-sheet assumption uncertain.
Le Mans v Lens
Le Mans have drawn twice and lost once. Lens have three points but lost their last two. The provider direction is almost even, making this another fixture where a draw can be more realistic than forcing a favourite.
Brest v Paris Saint-Germain
Brest are unbeaten on five points. PSG are 13th with two draws and a defeat, an unexpectedly weak start. The revised model now favours PSG 1–2, using their longer-run scoring baseline. The 46% away chance is still below an even chance; Brest's better current form remains a warning.
How to read these scores
The scores above are the model's selected outcomes, not promises. An exact score typically has a much lower probability than the corresponding home win, draw or away win. The low-confidence rows identify tight decisions and disagreements between current form and the provider. Existing fixture and form evidence was reviewed alongside the output; no unsupported availability claim has been added. Read the methodology and accuracy record before comparing these picks with your own.
Injuries and availability
PSG's official Brest match page says lineups will be revealed one hour before kickoff. They are not confirmed in this forecast. The small sample and conflicting model signals are therefore reasons for caution, not grounds to invent an injury explanation for PSG's slow start.
No complete official competition-wide absence list was available at the 10 September check. Club press conferences and league match centres remain the right sources for named players. This page will not convert rumours into team news, and any late void will be excluded from entry completion and accuracy.
What matters for predictors
- Paris FC–Lyon is almost perfectly balanced by points and goal difference.
- Monaco's perfect start meets a Strasbourg side with two consecutive wins.
- Auxerre's -7 goal difference creates the clearest away baseline, but Nice are also winless.
- Brest–PSG requires current form and long-term strength to be weighted together, not treated as a normal PSG away favourite.
Sources reviewed
Fact-check date: 10 September 2026 for fixture, form and availability reporting. Model predictions were revised separately on 11 September; confirmed lineups are not incorporated.
Prediction revision: 11 September 2026. Scores and probabilities above replace the pre-kickoff v3.1 selections; the earlier capture remains archived. No started fixture or recorded result was changed.